Eighteen of India's 28 states exceeded the fiscal deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of GSDP in FY25, a deterioration comparable to the Covid year of 2020-21, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). The report also noted a decline in states reporting a revenue surplus, with Bihar, Mizoram, and Telangana moving into deficit.
Parliament on Tuesday approved the long-awaited fiscal responsibility legislation after Finance Minister Jaswant Singh promised there would be no lowering of developmental expenditure.
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
Pakistan has increased its defence budget by 17.6 per cent to PKRs 3,000 billion for the upcoming fiscal year, as announced by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. The federal budget, estimated at PKRs 18,771 billion, targets 4 per cent GDP growth, with significant allocations for debt service and pensions. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted economic stability and ongoing discussions with the IMF, while the opposition protested Imran Khan's incarceration during the budget session.
India's fiscal deficit is projected to reach 4.5 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal year, exceeding the budgeted target, as the government's policy responses to the West Asia conflict are expected to strain public finances, according to research firm BMI.
Ashok Lahiri, a distinguished economist with experience in government, the private sector, and electoral politics, has been appointed as the new Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog, tasked with strengthening India's reform trajectory and policy-making.
In the throes of a financial crisis, the state's ruling Congress government has little to be triumphant about as Assembly elections approach next year, points out Aditi Phadnis.
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
If TVK MLAs and ministers are perceived as clean, or demonstrably cleaner than their predecessors, the credibility dividend will be enormous. The voter will feel rewarded, points out Ramesh Menon.
Investors and startup executives are calling for extending the period for an entity to be recognised as a startup from 10 to 15 years for deep-tech companies.
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will likely encapsulate this thinking in his Budget speech, to be finalised by March 13.
Customs regimes can lead to labyrinthine legal disputes. Budget 2026 must recognise that an excessively defensive Customs posture can itself become a trade barrier, point out Mukesh Butani and Shankey Agrawal.
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday announced an increase in the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on Futures and Options trade with a view to discouraging small investors from speculative trading in derivatives, which led to a sharp decline in the stock market.
Continuing on the fiscally prudent path, the Modi government in the interim Budget refrained from announcing populist measures, which will help it trim the fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent of the GDP next fiscal and 4.5 per cent in FY26.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty dived sharply by nearly 2 per cent on Sunday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed a hike in the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on derivatives. Reversing the early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex plunged sharply by 2,370.36 points or 2.88 per cent to slide below the 80,000-mark at 79,899.42 in afternoon trade as the finance minister announced a hike in STT on futures contracts to 0.05 per cent from the current 0.02 per cent.
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman will deliver a populist budget leaving more money in hands of the common man or push the reform agenda by staying on the fiscal glide path to lower the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.
The central government's fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6 per cent of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8 per cent on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit -- or gap between expenditure and revenue -- was Rs 16.53 lakh crore, or 5.63 per cent of the GDP, which grew 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.
The Parliament on Wednesday approved a watered down version of the fiscal responsibility bill aimed at disciplining state finances that left out clauses binding the government to tough fiscal deficit targets.
Experts say the state's economy is grappling with hidden debt, rising welfare costs, and lack of transparency.
Even as the debate over off-Budget liabilities continues, former finance ministry bureaucrats and leading economists say it's time the government went beyond the targets in the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act.
The government has already crossed the fiscal deficit at 132 per cent of the estimate as of December end.
Budget 2025-26 delivers a carefully calibrated strategy-stimulating demand and investment while keeping fiscal discipline intact. In an environment marked by global trade disruptions, and a softening in urban consumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has taken a measured approach.
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
The states will be able to raise additional open market loans of about Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) in the current year, according to the 2009-10 Budget estimates presented on Monday. According to Budget estimates of 2009-10, the states' share of taxes and duties is expected to increase to Rs 1,64,361 crore (Rs 1,643.61 billion) against Rs 1,60,179 crore (Rs 1,601.79 billion) in 2008-09.
PM's announcement were focused on those most affected by the note ban.
Finance ministers of states demanded an increase in allocation under 50-year interest-free loan scheme, while fiscally stressed states like Punjab and Kerala pitched for a special package and borrowing flexibility, sources said on Friday. In a pre-budget meeting with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, states have also urged for higher borrowing limits to support fiscal activities, besides additional funds for Jal Jeevan Mission.
BJP's reversals in rural Gujarat has prompted many policy watchers to predict that the Budget would have incentives for the agriculture sector and the rural economy.
'The first and most basic responsibility of any government is to protect its people from external threats and internal harm.' 'Budget 2025-2026 has to focus on meeting this responsibility,' asserts R Jagannathan.
